WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
THE EVOLVING THREAT IN THE 21ST CENTURY
Others pages in this series:
Introduction
What are WMD?
Nuclear Weapons
Atomic History
Biological Weapons
Chemical Weapons
WHAT ARE “WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION”?
Prepared by Laura Reed, Security Studies Program, MIT, Cambridge, MA,
USA
Although the term WMD provides a convenient shorthand for mass-casualty
weapons, there are very important differences in the characteristics,
effects and military roles of various nuclear, chemical, and biological
weapons.
Nuclear weapons stand apart in the public imagination
because of their horrific and unmatched destructive power: an all-out
nuclear attack could annihilate billions of people within hours. For
this reason, some argue that nuclear weapons should be distinguished
from all other types of weapons of mass destruction. There are approximately
30,000 nuclear weapons in national stockpiles of the eight nuclear weapons
states: Britain, China, France, India, Israel (assumed), North Korea
(claimed), Pakistan, Russia, and the United States. Depending upon
the yield and atmospheric conditions, a large thermonuclear weapon dropped
on a densely populated city could kill millions of people in an instant.
The detonation of just one “small” nuclear
weapon could kill as many as 100,000 people. In addition, many thousands
more would die over time due to the lethal effects of radiation. Currently,
the United States and Russia maintain several thousand nuclear weapons
on hair-trigger alert, or what is termed "launch-on-warning" of
a nuclear attack.
Because of governmental secrecy, it is impossible to give exact figures
on the makeup and yield of global nuclear arsenals. But much is publicly
known. An estimated 13,470 nuclear weapons are deployed worldwide by
eight countries, with another 14,000 weapons held in reserve, according
to the 2005 edition of the SIPRI Yearbook, published by the
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Overall, the total
number of nuclear weapons has decreased in the past few years, yet all
eight nuclear weapon states continue to maintain and modernize their
arsenals and assert (either publicly or covertly) that nuclear weapons
play a crucial role in their national security. It is believed that China
does not keep its nuclear force on alert status and that Britain and
France maintain their nuclear forces on lower levels of alert. There
is incomplete and contradictory information available on the nuclear
stockpiles of India, Pakistan and Israel. Most experts believe that the
nuclear weapons in these countries are only partially deployed. Even
greater uncertainty surrounds the status of North Korea’s nuclear
program, but some analysts estimate that North Korea may have already
built as many as 13 nuclear weapons.
Many aspects of the current nuclear predicament were accurately foreseen
in the immediate aftermath of the U.S. Manhattan Project that initially
developed the first atomic bombs. Physicist J.R. Oppenheimer, who headed
the scientists’ efforts in this top-secret program wrote in 1946
that:
The truly radical character of atomic weapons lies neither in the suddenness
with which they emerged from laboratories and the secret industries,
nor in the fact that they exploit an energy qualitatively different in
origin from all earlier sources. It lies in their vastly greater powers
of destruction, in the vastly reduced effort needed for such destruction.
And it lies no less in the consequent necessity for new and more effective
methods by which mankind may control the use of its new powers.
Chemical and biological weapons also pose the terrifying potential of
inflicting mass casualties. But there are some very significant differences
in their properties, effects, and methods of delivery.
Chemical weapons are notable because of
the widespread and longstanding commercial and military experience in
manufacturing their constituents. Especially compared with nuclear weapons,
chemical weapons are considerably easier and cheaper to manufacture.
Many dangerous chemical constituents and so-called precursors of chemical
weapons are currently commercially available. An international agreement
banning chemical weapons, the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), entered
into force in 1997. The treaty requires signatories to destroy existing
stockpiles of chemical weapons and, as of the end of 2005, at least 2
million chemical weapons and 12 million metric tons of chemical agents
have been destroyed and 175 countries have signed on to the agreement.
Biological weapons, which make use of lethal bacteria, viruses, or toxins,
are distinguished by their profoundly uncontrollable nature: once unleashed,
a biological agent such as smallpox can spread quickly to cause an epidemic
in human populations. Although biological weapons are highly dangerous,
they have only rarely been used in war or in terrorist attacks. There
are growing concerns, though, about the likelihood of future use of biological
weapons in light of the dynamism of biomedical technology and advances
in the field of biotechnology. The technologies available to create and
disperse biological agents are becoming more sophisticated and widely
available.
Several countries have developed and maintained active biological weapons
programs, despite the fact that the 1925 Geneva Convention prohibits
the use of germ weapons in war and the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention
(BWC) prohibits states from developing, retaining, and transferring these
weapons. Unfortunately, the current ban on offensive biological warfare
does not have any enforcement mechanisms, such as international inspections
or rules governing research and development of possible bioweapons like
anthrax. Negotiations to establish mechanisms to verify compliance and
assure enforcement of the ban on offensive biological weapons have been
unsuccessful; the most recent effort broke down in 2002 because the United
States refused to allow biological weapons inspections on its soil.
Useful Links
The Nuclear Threat Initiative offers a comprehensive overview and primer
on WMD, including analyses, news updates, and country profiles. http://www.nti.org/f_wmd411/f1a.html
The Arms Control Association offers excellent resources on a wide variety
of issues pertaining to WMD, including an overview of key arms control
agreements and analyses of timely issues. http://armscontrol.org
A thorough overview and chronology of key developments on WMD, as well
as a listing of educational resources, is available from the Center for
Nonproliferation Studies, part of the Monterey Institute for International
Studies. http://cnsdl.miis.edu/cnserd/
For interactive resources and information on the history and science
of nuclear weapons, including a useful glossary of terms, see the Atomic
Archive Website, supported by the National Science Foundation. http://www.atomicarchive.com/Glossary/Glossary1.shtml
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace provides a comprehensive
website that includes an assessment of weapons, updates on proliferation
concerns, and useful links.
http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/
Extensive resources and a chronology of the nuclear age are available
at the website of the Nuclear Age Peace Foundation, http://www.nuclearfiles.org
An international consortium of research institutes provides a variety
of updates and analysis on cooperative efforts to reduce the threat of
WMD, under the auspices of
Strengthening the Global Partnership, through the Center for Strategic
and International Studies. WWW.sgpproject.org
Data and analysis of trends and developments in military expenditures
and arms production worldwide can be found at the website of the Stockholm
International Peace Research Institute: http://www.sipri.org/contents/milap/
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